Application of innovative methods of mathematical and statistical analysis in modern plant bree­ding technologies in Ukraine

Abstract

Goal. To develop the principles of applying innovative statistical methods of experimental data analysis to optimize the system of selection of breeding samples for productivity and adaptability in conditions of climate change. Methods. Field (for the formation of methodologically verified experimental populations of breeding samples), instrumental-cameral (for automating the structural analysis of plants), matrix-digital (for the formation of a metadatabase), mathematical-statistical. Results. Genotype-environment interaction (GEI) is an important element of breeding technologies aimed at accelerating the pace of variety creation in climate change by optimizing the selection system. According to the results of studies of the grain productivity of selection samples of seed peas in the competitive variety test of 2021–2023, significant variability of the statistical characteristics of the variation series by year at a reliable level was revealed. The highest indicators of the average interpopulation variability (26.3 c/ha) were recorded in 2021, and the lowest (16.5 c/ha) in 2023. With the same set of genotypes, the difference in the levels of grain productivity was largely influenced by the form of epigenotypic variability — GEI. According to the results of the analysis of the regression equations established by the shapes of the response surfaces of the productivity of the breeding samples in 2021–2023, it was proved that the differentiating and analyzing temporal environment was the analytical geometric surface of 2022. Conclusions. At the interpopulation level, over the years of research, the cumulative effect and modular relationship between the elements of genotypic and epigenotypic variability, which manifests itself under the influence of environmental stressors, was established. In the conditions of the stressful effect of weather factors, the total range of phenotypic variability was minimized, and epigenotypic variability was maximized under the law of enthalpy (productive) minimum and entropic (adaptive) maximum against the background of stable genotypic variability compared to years with optimal conditions for plant growth and development. Therefore, selection at the intra-population level for a high genotypic component of productivity and detection of a high heritability coefficient is expedient to be carried out in years with unfavorable conditions for the development of the trait (according to the analysis of the response surface as a selection plateau), since its absolute “delta manifestation” is minimal and is determined mainly by the genotypic component.